Since the February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine, Western officials have accused Russia and its allies of orchestrating a series of disruptive incidents across Europe. The data, collected by The Associated Press (AP), highlights 59 cases where European governments, intelligence services, or prosecutors directly blamed Russia and its proxies for cyberattacks, propaganda, assassination plots, and acts of vandalism, arson, sabotage, or espionage.
These incidents include diverse tactics, such as stuffing car tailpipes with expanding foam in Germany and plotting to plant explosives on cargo planes. Other actions involved arson at stores and museums, cyberattacks targeting political figures and critical infrastructure, and spying activities in the U.K. Richard Moore, head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service, referred to this trend as a “staggeringly reckless campaign.”
Although it is often difficult to conclusively link these acts to Russia, the Kremlin has repeatedly denied any allegations of sabotage against the West. Nevertheless, more governments are publicly attributing attacks to Russian involvement, suggesting an ongoing campaign to create political unrest and undermine support for Ukraine.
James Appathurai, NATO's deputy assistant secretary-general for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber, pointed out that the dual objective of this campaign is to incite "political disquiet" among citizens and "undercut support for Ukraine." During the investigation, the AP consulted with 15 current officials, including two prime ministers and representatives from multiple European intelligence services and defense ministries.
Significant concentrations of alleged incidents have occurred in countries that are strong supporters of Ukraine, and many of these cases have the potential for grave consequences. For example, there were packages that exploded at shipping facilities in Germany and the U.K., suspected to be part of a broader Russian plot to bomb cargo planes destined for the U.S. and Canada. Additionally, there were revelations of a Russian scheme to assassinate the head of a major German arms manufacturer supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Investigations are ongoing concerning damage to undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, including a power cable connecting Estonia and Finland. In various instances, misinformation campaigns employed tactics like creating fake websites, which led to accusations of Russian disinformation aimed at sowing confusion among the French population. Moreover, authorities in Estonia, Poland, Latvia, and Finland have accused Russia and Belarus of manipulating migration patterns to their borders.
Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for President Putin, denounced claims against Russia as unfounded, asserting that the Kremlin has received no evidence to support the allegations. In compiling the cases, AP examined hundreds of incidents linked to Russia, only counting those where officials attributed blame clearly to Russian entities or allied factions in Belarus. While about a quarter of these incidents have led to legal actions or convictions, many others remain unsolved.
The nature of these operations has evolved since the invasion of Ukraine, with Russia adopting a bolder stance in executing acts of sabotage alongside traditional espionage and cyberattacks. Experts suggest that the mechanisms to weaken a nation today involve hybrid warfare tactics rather than outright invasions. While China has also faced allegations related to espionage in Europe, experts assert that Russia remains the primary source of these disruptive activities on the continent.
To address these emerging threats, a coordinated approach among NATO allies, focusing on intelligence sharing and collaborative security measures, has become crucial. However, efforts to effectively counteract these menacing strategies face increasing complexities, particularly as international support for Ukraine begins to falter and the reliability of U.S. partnerships comes into question. Some countries are stepping up their responses, such as NATO’s renewed mission to safeguard critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region, as the urgency to combat these hybrid threats increases.
