OTTAWA — As the 2025 federal election campaign enters its second week, U.S. President Donald Trump's impending tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, could dominate Canada's political discourse once again. Concurrently, there have been rising concerns within Conservative circles regarding Leader Pierre Poilievre's messaging and a series of recent polls indicating he is trailing the Liberals and Leader Mark Carney.
Despite Poilievre attracting thousands to rallies across Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia, and Manitoba, the significant lead the Conservatives once held over the Liberals has diminished. Critics within the party have begun to voice their frustrations about Poilievre and his campaign manager, Jenni Byrne, not pivoting their campaign focus to address Trump’s tariffs. Kory Teneycke, who previously served as the federal communications director for the Conservative Party and assisted in Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s re-election, urged at an Empire Club of Canada event on March 26 for an immediate campaign shift to tackle the issue of tariffs.
His concerns were echoed by internal polling data from Ontario showing the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by 15 points, a critical gap considering that over one-third of the House of Commons seats are contested in that province. Conservative strategist Amanda Galbraith emphasized the counter-productiveness of the leaks and complaints coming from within party ranks, stating that such behavior is “unhelpful, irritating, and unnecessary.” She advocated for trust in the campaign team’s judgment to adjust tactics as needed, highlighting the party's tendency to turn on leaders when polling numbers falter.
Multiple polls indicate that Trump’s threats of tariffs and potential annexation have supplanted affordability as the primary concern for Canadian voters. Indeed, many polls demonstrate that Carney has gained a substantial advantage among voters when it comes to addressing the issues created by Trump’s policies. Carney's campaign has notably centered on responding to U.S. tariffs, exemplified by his announcement of a $2 billion fund to support the Canadian auto sector while in Windsor, Ont., just hours before Trump’s surprise executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all auto imports.
Following a constructive phone call with Carney, Trump appeared to moderate his tone toward Canada, agreeing to initiate discussions on a new economic and security plan post-election. Meanwhile, Poilievre's campaign has remained focused on tax cuts and crime, without any significant initiatives directed at addressing Trump’s tariffs, a point of contention raised by Teneycke.
Despite the pressures, Galbraith noted that the size of Poilievre's crowds is notable and suggests potential voter mobilization, particularly among blue-collar workers historically courted by the Conservatives. Events in Winnipeg showcased this enthusiasm, with supporters lining up hours in advance of Poilievre's news conference. Individual supporters expressed a range of sentiments, including one man, Patrick, who cited Poilievre’s messages on regulatory reductions and crime as key factors influencing his support.
Another attendee, Joseph Fourre, mentioned that he was undecided prior to attending but was swayed by Poilievre's strong stance against fentanyl trafficking. Galbraith also acknowledged that the NDP's significant decrease in support, down to just 6% in a recent Leger poll—compared to nearly 18% in the 2021 federal election—could work to the Conservatives' advantage by consolidating right-of-center votes in traditionally competitive ridings.
As Poilievre continues his campaign, he faces travel to Toronto and then on to Atlantic Canada, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh heads to the Vancouver area. Carney has no public events scheduled in the immediate future. All parties are anticipating the potential impact of the tariffs Trump plans to announce Wednesday, as he has indicated that Canada might not be targeted as harshly as other countries.
