Experts indicate that the condo market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is unlikely to recover from its current stagnation, even as other major Canadian cities enjoy more optimistic demand levels. The ongoing accumulation of supply in the GTA, combined with persistent affordability issues, continues to deter potential buyers, despite a slight reduction in borrowing costs over the past year. Brendon Cowans, a sales representative with the Toronto-based brokerage Property.ca, pointed out, “Sure, the rates have fallen… but it’s still not night and day difference.” He emphasized that factors such as a weaker Canadian dollar and stagnant wage growth are making it difficult for many to enter the market.
Analysts predict that 2024 will be a record year for condo completions in the GTA, but Cowans highlights a significant discrepancy between inventory levels and buyer demand. Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reveals that approximately 1,400 condominiums were sold in the GTA last month, marking a 23.5 percent decline compared to March 2024. During the same period, nearly 5,500 new condo units were introduced to the market, resulting in a total of almost 4,700 active listings. Furthermore, the board reported a 20 percent drop in condo sales during the first quarter of this year compared to the same timeframe last year.
As a result of the surplus of available condos, buyer preferences are shifting significantly. Cowans noted that with so many choices, potential buyers are seeking more value. “They’re like, ‘Well, if I’m going to pay this, I want a bigger place, or I want the balcony to be a wraparound, I want this type of view,’” he remarked. Many features that were previously considered luxuries are now perceived as necessities, indicating a change in consumer expectations.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation forecasts a slowdown in the construction of new condominiums in Ontario this year, driven by a weakening resale and rental market. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic described the GTA as potentially the weakest condo market in Canada due to diminished investor demand and significant supply levels. He explained that the GTA had experienced a surge in pre-construction buying during the pandemic until early 2022, which has led to many of these units now being completed at a time when demand is faltering.
Conversely, the condo market in Montreal appears to be thriving. The Montreal real estate board reported a 15 percent increase in condo sales in March and nearly 17 percent for the first quarter. The median price in Montreal is approximately $420,000, which remains more affordable compared to the average price of $682,000 in the GTA. Kavcic attributed Montreal's market stability to its affordability relative to other cities.
Other cities, such as Calgary, also demonstrate a better-performing condo market, as residents move from Ontario in search of lower prices. Although Calgary experienced a one-third year-over-year decline in condo sales last month, the 1,383 sales recorded in early 2025 are still above average for this period.
The Greater Vancouver Area presents a mixed picture. The ratio of condo sales to active listings in the GTA is around 60 percent below the long-term average, while this figure is about half in Vancouver, indicating a more moderate supply-demand imbalance. According to TD economist Rishi Sondhi, construction is faring better in Vancouver, largely supported by steady ownership demand. Despite this, Vancouver broker Randy Ryalls noted that developers are cautious, opting not to release new units into the marketplace unless necessary.
Condo sales in Vancouver were reported to be around 10 percent lower last month compared to March 2024, with a benchmark price of $767,300, reflecting a 0.9 percent year-over-year decrease. Buyers in Vancouver are taking their time due to high prices, and many are depending on financial support from family for down payments. Ryalls warned of the potential for an exacerbated supply-demand gap in the coming years if new projects remain stalled.
This comprehensive examination of the current condo market highlights the challenges facing the GTA compared to other Canadian cities where demand appears more resilient. Shifts in buyer behaviors and preferences, as well as the contrasting performance across different regions, underscore the complexities of the overall real estate landscape in Canada.
