In 2024, Earth experienced its hottest year on record, with a significant increase in global average temperature that temporarily breached a crucial climate threshold, according to several weather monitoring agencies. The average temperature surpassed that of 2023 and exceeded the long-established warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s, as stipulated in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The European Commission's Copernicus Climate Service reported a warming of 1.6 degrees Celsius (2.89 degrees Fahrenheit), while reports from Japan and the UK cited 1.57 and 1.53 degrees Celsius (2.83 and 2.75 degrees Fahrenheit) respectively.
American monitoring agencies, including NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, were expected to release their figures later in the day, indicating that they too would reflect record heat for 2024. The data is adjusted to fill gaps in observations dating back to 1850, leading to slight variations in the reported figures. Samantha Burgess, the strategic climate lead at Copernicus, emphasized that the primary driver of these record temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere resulting from fossil fuel combustion. This increase in temperature correlates with rising sea levels and accelerated melting of glaciers and ice sheets.
The rise in temperature in 2024 surpassed 2023's readings by an unusual margin of an eighth of a degree Celsius (more than a fifth of a degree Fahrenheit), which is significantly larger than typical fluctuations observed in prior years. The last decade has recorded the ten hottest years on record, indicating a rapid shift in climate conditions. For instance, July 10, 2024, was identified as the hottest day ever recorded, with an average global temperature of 17.16 degrees Celsius (62.89 degrees Fahrenheit).
Climate scientists point to multiple factors contributing to the warming, primarily fossil fuel consumption, alongside a short-lived natural El Niño effect. Additionally, an undersea volcanic eruption in 2022 may have briefly mitigated some warming by increasing reflective particles and moisture in the atmosphere.
Experts are sounding alarms regarding the implications of this new data. Marshall Shepherd, a meteorology professor at the University of Georgia, described the situation as a "warning light" indicating urgent action is needed. Observed climate-related events, such as Hurricane Helene, floods in Spain, and wildfires in California, exemplify this shift. Jennifer Francis from the Woodwell Climate Research Center noted that while alarm bells have been ringing for some time, the emergencies now extend beyond temperature concerns.
Financial impacts from climate events reached $140 billion last year, ranking among the highest recorded losses due to climate-related disasters. Kathy Jacobs, a water scientist at the University of Arizona, warned that rising temperatures could lead to increased damages to property and adverse health effects on human populations and ecosystems.
This year's temperature marks the first time a recorded year has exceeded the 1.5-degree threshold, although Berkeley Earth had previously noted a similar measurement for 2023. Nonetheless, researchers clarified that the 1.5-degree goal pertains to long-term warming trends, now calculated as a 20-year average, which sits at 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) relative to pre-industrial levels. Northern Illinois University's Victor Gensini emphasized the significance of surpassing this threshold, viewing it as an alarming indication of the limits established by the Paris Agreement.
As projections for 2025 estimate it will be cooler than 2024 due to a potential La Niña effect, the first days of January 2025 already suggested a warmer start to the year. Scientists debate whether global warming is accelerating due to insufficient data on atmospheric warming, though there's evidence that ocean temperatures are rising at an alarming rate. Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus, noted that society is unprepared for the new climate challenges, highlighting a need for proactive adaptation strategies.
Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, characterized the current climate trajectory as reminiscent of a "dystopian sci-fi film," asserting that humanity is now witnessing the consequences of prior actions.
