In Brazil, the future of former President Jair Bolsonaro hangs in the balance as a panel of five of the nation's Supreme Court justices prepares to determine whether he will face trial on charges of attempting a coup. This decision is expected within the next three weeks and involves Bolsonaro along with 33 others who have been indicted by the country’s prosecutor-general.
The Brazilian Supreme Court employs two perpetual five-justice panels to expedite various cases, including criminal matters. Each panel operates independently and excludes the chief justice. Adjustments within the panels primarily occur at requests or when a member assumes the chief justice role, which in Brazil is for a two-year term. As the rapporteur handling the cases against Bolsonaro, Justice Alexandre de Moraes has authority to present the charges to the panel he is a part of.
It is noteworthy that the panel assessing Bolsonaro's case excludes the two justices he appointed during his presidency: André Mendonça and Kássio Nunes Marques, who serve on the alternative panel. Bolsonaro’s legal team is pushing for the decision to be made by the full court rather than just the five-justice panel. However, only de Moraes or a majority of three justices from the panel can decide this matter.
If the allegations are upheld, this same five-justice panel will likely preside over the entirety of the legal proceedings, including the defense, witness testimonies, and any sentencing. Legal experts in Brazil are divided on whether it would be more prudent to keep the trial within the confines of the five-justice panel to avoid leading into the 2026 presidential election, or to allow for a full-court decision, which would bear more weight.
According to criminal attorney and professor Luis Henrique Machado from IDP university in Brasilia, it is “virtually impossible” that the panel will dismiss the charges against Bolsonaro. However, this does not necessarily ensure a guilty verdict. Bolsonaro has maintained his innocence regarding all five counts against him, asserting that he is a victim of political persecution.
The five justices set to deliberate on Bolsonaro’s potential trial include:
- Alexandre de Moraes: As the rapporteur, de Moraes, appointed by former President Michel Temer in 2017, is viewed as a conservative and has previously been the target of Bolsonaro and his allies. His background in public security is notable, especially since he has also faced criticism for alleged judicial overreach from individuals like billionaire Elon Musk.
- Cármen Lúcia: Lúcia is the chair of the Supreme Electoral Court and was appointed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2006. Known for her stringent stance on criminal cases, she has consistently aligned with de Moraes on decisions regarding the upholding of democratic standards. In her rulings, she has criticized Bolsonaro's respect for presidential authority.
- Cristiano Zanin: Zanin, who acts as the chair of the panel, served as Lula’s attorney from 2013 to 2023 and played a significant role in overturning Lula's graft conviction, which enabled him to contest and win against Bolsonaro in the 2022 elections.
- Flávio Dino: After serving as justice minister under Lula, Dino transitioned to the Supreme Court in 2023. He has been a vocal critic of Bolsonaro and was in office during the January 8, 2023, attacks by Bolsonaro supporters on government buildings.
- Luiz Fux: Appointed in 2011 by Dilma Rousseff, Fux is regarded as a moderate justice. He had a challenging relationship with Bolsonaro's presidency, particularly concerning COVID-19 policies, and has often sided with de Moraes in his decisions.
The upcoming ruling from this diverse panel is keenly awaited, as its implications could reverberate through Brazil's political landscape in the months leading up to the next presidential elections.
